Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

<p><b>Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management</b></p> <p>This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research.</p> <p>The fourth edition of <i>Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management</i> features:<br /><br /></p> <ul> <li>Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling</li> <li>An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model</li> <li>Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems</li> <li>A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application</li> </ul> <p><i><br />Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition</i>, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.</p>